By John Addison (original post at Clean Fleet Report)

Surprise – there is plenty of room for a U.S. start-up or a cost breakthrough offering from Asia. Some plans will see delays; others will accelerate.

Forecasts and Renewable Energy

Accenture forecasts 1.5 million electric vehicles in the United States by 2015. Over 10 million electric vehicles are easily possible by 2020.

Single electric utilities have scenarios for charging over one million electric vehicles in their own service area by 2020. With renewable energy investment required of utilities in 30 states, these utitilies are most interested in night time charging of electric vehicles with wind, geothermal, and hydropower. Utilities are also implementing smart grids and incentives for off-peak charging.

By 2011 year end, competition will be intense for electric car leadership. The above Top 10 describe our best guess about the market share leaders for delivered plug-in vehicles on the United States roads in 2011, although not necessarily in order of 2011 installed market share.

Battery electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids, and electric vehicles with range extended by engines or fuel cells were all considered.

Over 100 competitors will be fighting for U.S. share by 2012. Some may be struggle to get significant share due to the time and cost of safety and other regulatory approvals, delays in funding, unpleasant surprises from a battery, drive system, or component supplier. It’s a tough business. Even Tesla had to add 700 pounds and two years to get the first Roadsters in customers’ hands.

Volkswagen may teach everyone how to extend range by making vehicles light. The concept Up Light weighs just over 1,500 pounds, but we don’t expect U.S. sales in 2011. Zenn might be there with a commercialized EEstor ultracap.

China could have several price leaders being delivered to U.S. customers. India might bring us a Reva or Nano EV that under prices everyone. Mitsubishi or Subaru could make bigger U.S. electric plans.

Don’t count out the good old United States “can do” entrepreneurs with exciting innovation and venture capital backing. Some think that V-Vehicles, Aptera, or Miles will be on the list.

Read the full article here: original post at Clean Fleet Report

John Addison publishes the Clean Fleet Report and speaks at conferences. He is the author of the new book - Save Gas, Save the Planet - now selling at Amazon and other booksellers.